COSAS QUE NOS HAN HECHO PENSAR V: SEMANA DEL 30 JULIO AL 3 AGOSTO


Una noche de verano del futuro… de Iván Solbes:
All this would not be a problem were it not for the ECB’s insistence on having positive equity being in conflict with its responsibility to maintain financial stability. Worse, this insistence has become a source of financial instability. For example, in order to protect its equity, the ECB has insisted on obtaining seniority on its government bond holdings. In doing so, it has made these bonds more risky for the private holders, who have reacted by selling the bonds. This also implies that if the ECB were to take up its responsibility of lender of last resort, it will have to abandon its seniority claim on the government bonds it buys in the market.
Until I see the ‘bazooka’ firing one or more rounds every day until yields are lastingly at sustainable levels I see no reason for optimism that there has been a true change of heart. Please let me be wrong. The European crisis is a willful and culpable failure of policy. History will not absolve them.
Los problemas heredados, que son los que están ahogando a las economías periféricas y poniendo en peligro la viabilidad de la unión monetaria, al ser resultado del mal diseño del euro y tener consecuencias nefastas sobre el conjunto de la Unión, requieren soluciones solidarias y cooperativas; es decir, que además de que los países deudores se ajusten el cinturón, los acreedores pongan más recursos sobre la mesa.
Mr. Gros, who is German but went to college in Italy and earned a doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago, is now director of the Center for European Policy Studies. He argues that the euro zone’s current rescue programs are too small to cast fear into the hearts of speculators who are helping to drive up borrowing costs for the bloc’s weakest members.
Has printing money been inflationary? Although much of the centre-right (and even some of the centre-left) still holds the Friedmanite view that ‘inflation is always and everywhere’ about printing money, the empirical evidence suggests that this view is simply wrong. The Swiss Central Bank successfully capped the exchange rate by printing money with negligible inflationary consequences. Neither massive QE by the Bank of England nor the ECB’s LTRO has produced any jump in inflation. Indeed, EZ (and UK) price levels at the moment are falling. Friedman himself admitted that the view depended on the non-bank public’s demand for money, and it is precisely because of lack of effective demand that most of Europe is in recession.
The truth is, we don’t know ourselves nearly as well as we think we do. When it comes to performance, our surprising self-ignorance makes understanding where we went right and where we went wrong difficult, to say the least. At the root of the problem is the human brain itself. There’s a lot going on in there, but just because it’s your brain doesn’t mean you know what it’s doing.
Robert Mundell: “Spain is going to need a bailout. I think it’s quite clear.» “The Spanish problem is there is a potential sovereign debt problem for Spain. There’s a debt problem for the regional structure of the Spanish system. And there’s a banking system problem.”
Draghi también abrió la puerta a monetizar la deuda en lugar de esterilizarla; en otras palabras, dejó entrever que está dispuesto a darle a la manivela de imprimir billetes y crear inflación, como lleva haciendo la Fed desde el primer quantitative easing, después de la quiebra de Lehman Brothers en septiembre de 2008. En todo caso, los analistas discrepan sobre esta medida: «Creemos que el BCE continuará esterilizando las compras, aunque tal vez a través de las cuentas o de bonos en lugar de depósitos a plazo», señalan desde Citi.

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