COSAS QUE NOS HAN HECHO PENSAR IV: SEMANA 23-27 JULIO


Ilustración de Iván Solbes
Esta semana, hemos tratado de encontrar un análisis económico que defendiera los recortes recién aprobados por el Gobierno de Rajoy. No lo hemos encontrado. Rogamos que si alguien lo ha visto, nos lo envíe por correo a economiaendostardes@gmail.com. En serio. La única explicación que se nos ocurre es que estos economistas deben estar muy ocupados asesorando a gobiernos, políticos y organismos internacionales. Pero sus recetas se están aplicando. ¿Es que no hay nadie que dé la cara?

Spain may yet be able to fend off a bail-out for some time. It has some cash reserves and can still borrow at short maturities. The euro area also has its temporary rescue fund, which will lend the Spanish government the initial sum of money for the banks. But even if Spain survives a hot summer, the markets are signalling that it will need a full bail-out later this year.
En The Spanish patient, The Economist.

There is no reason to believe that solutions that failed repeatedly will succeed this time. The silver lining is that these solutions are becoming increasingly more difficult so that policymakers will have to do what they hate most – acknowledge failure.
Moody’s decision to put the German public debt (already above 80% of GDP) on a negative watch is a healthy reminder that the EFSF/ESM route is leading nowhere good.
En End of game? Don’t bet on it por Charles Wyplosz.

The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that the average elasticity across the euro countries of changes in corporate tax to changes in GDP is 1.38.  Thus, a one percent rise in GDP increases corporate tax revenue by 1.38 percent, and the same statistic for household income tax is 1.48.  When GDP falls the reverse occurs (see Escolano, page 19, full reference below).  When a government cuts expenditure, by reducing national output it also reduces its revenue.
Albert Einstein famously remarked that doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different outcome is a sign of madness.

En Pain with No Gain: Euro Triadic Illusions on Debts and Deficits por John Weeks.

The performance of the economics profession has been like a master chef who not only burned the meal but burned down the entire restaurant. Yet the chef never lost his job; instead he is still in the kitchen, cooking up mostly the same meal, no wiser for the wear.

En Youth Unemployment is overstated por Steven Hill.

In this orthodox climate, Stiglitz and Krugman are excluded much as Keynes was. The practical reforms that logically flow from their ideas would include drastically increasing regulation of finance, creating a medley of measures to promote equality, and massively increasing public spending. None of this has been on the table for a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson.
En Our Most Widely Ignored Public Intellectuals por Robert Kuttner.

Now a “policy note” from the Levy Economics Institute documents analytical warnings of the European Union’s current debt crisis given separately a decade or more ago by five economists:  Wynne Godley (1997), L. Randall Wray (1998), Mathew Forstater (1999), Warren Mosler (2001) and Stephanie Bell (2002). 
En The Premonitory Five: Godley, Wray, Forstater, Mosler and Bell por Edward Fullbrook.

Spain’s nightmare is a symptom of what is wrong with the entire euro zone. As the months drag on, the crisis is deepening. Europe’s leaders have asked the world to trust that they will do what it takes to save the euro. They have also pleaded for more time to sort out the mess. Their task is indeed immense, but as they disappear to their chateaux and beach villas, trust is draining away and time is not their friend.
En The flight for Spain en The Economist.

The question then arises: can we have a monetary union where one country is (or a few of them are) providing the safe asset of reference? If things go this way, Germany will benefit from a significant rent. Current estimates of the premium the US Treasury benefits from are around 50 to 100 basis points. Take the low end of this estimate and assume Germany from now on benefits from a 50 basis points premium on its debt securities. This would translate into something like an annual €10 billion gain. Even half of that sum would be meaningful.
En Should the eurozone be mutualised? por Jean Pisany-Ferri.

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1 Comentario en “COSAS QUE NOS HAN HECHO PENSAR IV: SEMANA 23-27 JULIO

  1. Fíjate que yo no veo tanto el problema en los recortes, sino en el momento en que se están haciendo.

    Si se hicieran los recortes cuando la gente tuviera trabajo (0% desempleo) y los sueldos suficientemente altos como para que cada uno se pagara su seguro médico, escolar, etc… sería medianamente aceptable. Sobre todo teniendo en cuenta que dicha política es la que la mayoría española ha elegido.

    A mí particularmente lo que me hace pensar es que no haya un plan político. Hacer recortes y quitar prestaciones sociales cuando el 53,3% de la población joven está en paro… eso es lo que a mí me hace pensar.

    Saludos.

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